The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) warned Thursday that a severe low pressure system over the Arabian Sea is likely to transform into a cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours.
PMD’s Chief Meteorologist Sardar Sarfaraz indicated that if the low-pressure system does develop into a cyclonic storm, it will be named “Asna”, which means “highest” and “brighter”. A cyclonic storm during the monsoon season is very unusual, Sarfaraz said, noting that this is the first time since 1961 that such a weather system is directed towards Sindh’s coastal belt from Central India.
“During monsoon, there is approximately 1% or 2% chance for a depression or low pressure to turn into a cyclonic storm or tropical cyclone.” meteorologist said.
Presently, a deep depression over India’s Rann of Kutch lies 270km east/southeast of Karachi and is expected to intensify into cyclonic storm later tonight or by today (Friday) morning, if it gets favourable weather conditions.
The Met Office expects the possible storm and weather system to bring heavy rains to Pakistan’s coastal belt, including lower Sindh and Karachi.
As a result, PMD’s cyclone warning center in the port city has also warned fishermen in lower Sindh and Balochistan to avoid venturing to the sea till August 31 in view of possible cyclone. This system is also likely to bring scattered heavy rainfall to isolated extremely heavy rainfall in Tharparkar, Badin, Thatta, Sajawal, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allah Yar, Matiari, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas, Sanghar, Jamshoro, Dadu and Shaheed Benazirabad districts and Karachi till August 31 with occasional gaps. Such torrential rains may trigger pluvial flood or inundation in low lying areas of Sindh, Balochistan and southern Punjab.
It may also cause flash flooding in hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan and local nullahs and streams of Karachi, Hyderabad, Dadu, Kalat, Khuzdar, Jaffarabad, Sibbi, Naseerabad, Barkhan, Loralai, Awaran, Panjgur, Washuk, Mastung and Lasbella.
Heavy rains may also trigger landslides in Murree, Galliyat, Mansehra, Kohistan, Chitral, Dir, Swat, Shangla, Buner, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah has instructed all relevant departments, including the administration and the municipal bodies, to heighten their responsiveness to potential disasters.
Additionally, all hospitals have been directed to enhance their management and ensure the attendance of their staff. Moreover, the National Emergency Operations Center (NEOC) of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) anticipated more “heavy to very heavy rain” clubbed with wind/thunderstorms in parts of Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan within the next 24 to 72 hours.
Rainfall is likely to exceed 100mm in most parts of Sindh, including Karachi, Hyderabad, and Sukkur, a statement read, adding that heavy downpours are expected to trigger urban flooding in urban centre, including Karachi and Hyderabad, as well as flash flooding in local nullahs and river tributaries. It also predicted heavy rainfall in Punjab and Balochistan that could cause urban flooding in urban centres, floods in hill torrents in both provinces and high river flows.
